The Commission's November 5 publication says Greece, Spain, and Cyprus face disproportionate arrivals, while Italy faces disproportionate sea arrivals following search-and-rescue operations. Those four countries are eligible to access the Solidarity Pool, subject to the pact's responsibility rules.
The assessment lists Belgium, Czechia, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, France, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, and Finland as at risk of migratory pressure. It separately says six countries face a significant cumulative situation over the previous five years.
The Commission reports that irregular border crossings fell by more than one-third in the first half of 2026, after a decline of more than 50% over the previous two years. These are the Commission's administrative findings and policy classifications; the proposed 2027 Solidarity Pool still requires Council agreement, and national contributions are not yet public.